RISK APPETITE INDICATORS
When there is no clear, unequivocal signal from the signal grid, that is when not all four signals are pointing in the same direction, currency traders and investors can still boost their total return by using a risk appetite indicator to gauge overall market sentiment in terms of “risky” or “safe” assets, both in terms of putting on new positions and in terms of measuring their existing positions. Risk sentiment can be divided up into three levels:
Risk-seeking/stable
Risk-neutral
Risk-aversion/unstable
When the indicator is in risk-seeking or risk-neutral mode, be long a basket of higher carry currencies, either in the developed or emerging markets. Conversely, when it is in risk-aversion mode, obviously having moved there from risk-neutral, cut and reverse the position, going short the carry basket of currencies. Risk appetite has become an increasingly important concept not just because of the need to create more accurate models for forecasting short-term currency moves, but also because the last few years have shown a marked pick-up in cross-asset market volatility. There are several risk appetite indicators created by the private sector for this purpose. Not just currency traders or speculators can use this. A risk appetite indicator can be a crucial tool for corporate Treasurers and institutional investors, not least in providing them with an informed context within which their exposure exists.